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Where your MRR actually lands in two years

This projects MRR forward month by month from your current base, your new business growth rate, expansion, and revenue churn. It compounds the net rate rather than adding it, which is why two rates that look close produce very different numbers by month twenty four. Change the comparison rate to see it.

Last reviewed 27 August 2026

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New MRR from new customers, as a percentage of current MRR.

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Upgrades and seat growth, net of downgrades.

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Same expansion and churn, different new business rate.

Result

MRR after 12 months

$82,849

$994,188 annualised, compounding at a net 10.5% a month

MRR after 24 months

$274,558

Doubles roughly every 6.9 months

Projection

Projection
MonthMRRAnnualisedAt 15% new business
Month 3$33,731$404,770$36,553
Month 6$45,511$546,129$53,446
Month 12$82,849$994,188$114,259
Month 18$150,821$1,809,849$244,267
Month 24$274,558$3,294,700$522,205

The two rates differ by 3.0 points a month. By month twenty four that is a gap of $247,646, which is the whole argument for treating growth rate as the number you defend rather than a number you report.

How this works

What the numbers mean.

  • 01The net monthly rate is new business plus expansion minus revenue churn. That single figure drives everything, and it is usually smaller than founders expect because churn is subtracted from the same base that growth is added to.
  • 02MRR is compounded, not added. Each month starts from the previous month's balance, so the projection is current MRR multiplied by the net factor raised to the number of months.
  • 03The comparison column reruns the same model with a different new business rate and holds churn and expansion constant, which isolates what a few points of growth rate is worth over two years.

Assumptions and limits

  • A constant monthly rate is a simplification. Real growth is lumpy below a few hundred customers, and rates usually decay as the base gets larger.
  • Revenue churn and customer churn are different numbers. Revenue churn is the correct input here, and it is often lower than customer churn because small accounts leave first.
  • This models revenue, not cash. Annual prepayment changes the cash picture substantially without changing MRR at all.

Questions about this tool

Should I use revenue churn or customer churn?
Revenue churn, because this projects revenue. Customer churn counts logos and treats a two hundred dollar account the same as a two thousand dollar one. In most B2B companies the small accounts churn hardest, so customer churn overstates the revenue damage, sometimes by a wide margin.
Why does a small rate change matter so much?
Because the difference compounds every month rather than once. Three extra points a month is roughly a 1.03 multiplier applied twenty four times, which is about a two times difference in ending MRR. That is why growth rate, not absolute revenue, is the number that separates similar looking companies after two years.
Can expansion revenue offset churn entirely?
It can, and companies where it does have net negative revenue churn, meaning the existing base grows without any new customers. It is the strongest position a subscription business can be in. It is also rare early on, because expansion needs accounts large enough to expand into.
How far out is this projection worth trusting?
Roughly six to nine months. Beyond that the constant rate assumption dominates the output and you are reading your assumption back to yourself. Use the twenty four month figure to compare scenarios against each other, not as a forecast you would put in a board deck.

Related

This tool is free and there is nothing to sign up for. If you would rather have the work done than calculate it, that is what Zway does.

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